Alice suggested building a subscription app teaching AI skills — 5 min/day, beginner → AI native, $25/month, personalized by career. She referenced "lil smartyme" as a comparable. This assessment covers market size, structural challenges, and — most importantly — what we can actually address given our combined capabilities, and what it would take to go bigger.
| Factor | Data | |
|---|---|---|
| AI-powered platforms | 60%+ already use AI adaptive learning — this is table stakes, not a moat | 1 |
| Self-learning apps | 56% of revenue but commoditising fast | 1 |
| North America | 36–40% of revenue. Saturated. | 12 |
| Asia-Pacific | 19–23% CAGR. Fastest growth, but lower ARPU. | 2 |
| Enterprise | 28–32% of revenue and growing fastest | 1 |
| CAC pressure | Freemium + free content driving acquisition costs up across the board | 1 |
| Optimistic | Realistic | Pessimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $25/mo | $20/mo | $15/mo |
| CAC (paid) | $40 | $60 | $80 |
| D30 retention | 15% | 10% | 7% |
| Avg. sub length | 4 months | 2.5 months | 1.5 months |
| LTV | $100 | $50 | $22.50 |
| LTV:CAC | 2.5:1 | 0.83:1 | 0.28:1 |
This isn't abstract. Here's what Eric + Alice concretely bring to this, and where the gaps are.
Eric can build the full product (app, AI content pipeline, personalization engine) in 2–4 weeks. He's already generating AI content for Donna and has infrastructure for audio, text, and adaptive learning paths. The EdTech connection via Talent Coop (Renee, Leslie, 30+ schools) opens a potential school distribution channel. But Eric has zero consumer marketing experience, no TikTok/Meta ad stack, and his time is split across Sourcy (retainer), Blackring (priority), and Donna (pilot).
Alice has direct corporate HR relationships from Beans Wellness — insurance brokers, workplace experience companies, MNCs. She's delivered 1,000+ sessions, pitched Aon, sold through Arca. Stanford wellness credential adds credibility. But she's pregnant (due May), running Beans full-time, and also exploring hotel affiliate and other ideas. Her time is the bottleneck.
| Collaboration | Result | Turnaround |
|---|---|---|
| Aon proposal | Submitted, decision March 2026 | 2 days (midnight sessions) |
| Arca sales doc | 1-page PDF for sales team | Same day |
| Corporate wellness TAM | Full HK + SG market sizing | Same day |
| Hotel affiliate demo | Working bilingual prototype | 1 day |
The pattern: Alice identifies the opportunity and directs, Eric builds fast. This works. The question is whether it works for a product business (ongoing, needs retention) vs. a project business (build once, ship, move on).
Not the global TAM. Our TAM — given our network, time, and skills — right now.
| Assumption | Value |
|---|---|
| Alice's warm corporate contacts | ~20–50 companies |
| Conversion rate (warm outreach) | 10–20% |
| Signed accounts (year 1) | 3–10 |
| Avg. company size | 200 employees |
| Price per employee/month | $10 |
| Annual contract value | $24K/company |
$72K–$240K ARR in year 1, with zero ad spend, using only Alice's existing relationships. This is modest but real. Every dollar is profit minus hosting + Eric's time.
HK has ~5,600 companies with 100+ employees (from our prior corporate wellness TAM research). If 5% adopt AI upskilling:
But reaching 280 companies requires a dedicated sales function — not Alice part-time while running Beans + being a new mum. This is the scaling wall.
At $20/mo, 4,200 paid subs = $1M ARR. With 5% free→paid conversion, that's 84K free users. At $50 CAC for paid subscribers, acquiring 4,200 costs ~$210K in ad spend — and that's before factoring in the realistic LTV:CAC of 0.83:1 (i.e. net negative). Only viable with organic/viral distribution we don't currently have.
| Capability | Have It? | How to Get It |
|---|---|---|
| Product (app + AI content pipeline) | Yes | Eric. 2–4 week build. |
| Initial B2B distribution | Yes | Alice's corporate contacts. |
| Credentialing/certification | Partial | Alice's Stanford credential helps. Need industry body partnership (e.g. HKCS, HKPC) for recognised cert. |
| Dedicated B2B sales | No | Hire or partner. Alice can't scale solo with Beans + baby. Need 1 full-time BD person to break past 10 accounts. |
| Consumer growth (TikTok/Meta UA) | No | Need performance marketer + $50–200K ad budget. Neither of us has this skill. |
| Retention/gamification design | No | Product/UX designer with mobile learning experience. Streaks, social, progression mechanics. |
| Regional expansion (SG, TW) | Partial | Eric has SG contacts. Need local sales partner per market. |
| HR-tech platform partnerships | Partial | Integration with Workday, BambooHR, etc. for B2B distribution at scale. |
Consumer app: skip. We don't have the distribution, the ad budget, or the growth skills. The unit economics are negative under realistic assumptions.
B2B upskilling: do this. "AI literacy for your workforce" is a boardroom priority. We have the product capability (Eric) and the initial distribution (Alice's corporate network). Revenue in weeks, not months. $72–240K ARR year 1 is realistic and requires zero ad spend.
Optimal structure: B2B2C. Sell to companies (annual contracts), employees use a consumer-grade 5 min/day app. LinkedIn Learning, Udemy Business, Coursera for Business all proved this model.
The sequencing that matters: Ship B2B first. Prove retention with corporate users. If organic consumer demand emerges from employees sharing it — then explore B2C. Not before.